Talk of an economic slowdown is dominating the headlines, and with recession concerns rising, many are wondering what it could mean for the real estate market—particularly home values and buying power.
Let’s cut through the noise with some historical perspective.
A Recession Doesn’t Equal Falling Home Prices
It’s a common misconception that a recession automatically triggers a drop in home prices. In reality, the 2008 housing crash was an outlier—not the norm. That downturn was driven by excessive inventory and risky lending. Today’s market conditions are very different. Inventory remains historically low, even in areas where supply is increasing.
According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices actually rose during four of the last six recessions. That’s because prices tend to follow their existing trend. Right now, that trend is steady appreciation at a healthy, sustainable pace.
Mortgage Rates Often Drop in Economic Slowdowns
Another trend? Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. In all six of the last U.S. recessions, rates declined. While we’re unlikely to return to the ultra-low 3% rates of 2020-2021, today’s higher rates could ease, giving luxury buyers more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
Yes, the economy may be shifting. But history shows us that the housing market remains resilient—and can even offer opportunity during downturns. Whether you're considering a sale, searching for a new home, or looking to invest, don’t let fear cloud your judgment.
Let’s talk strategy.
Contact Sean Elstone today to explore smart, tailored options in the Main Line, Philadelphia, and Jersey Shore luxury markets.
